adrastos comments on how fucked we are.

library chronicles comments on the vapidness of moreno.

i should also mention though that there was some good news last night in la1 (lakeview, slice of upper garden and riverbend, eastbank of jefferson parish).  jim harlan got a lot of votes last night.  in fact, he won more votes than steve scalise did in his special general election a couple months ago.  scalise won then with about 33k votes.  harlan got 36k votes last night.  that is a really hopeful indicator of a competitive race in la1.

update:

humid haney also chimes in on why he is going to vote for bill jefferson in the runoff.  i’m tempted to join him but will probably vote for one of the third party candidates.  maybe malik rahim.

LA2

the first dumbest vote in this race was a vote for bill jefferson.  the second dumbest vote in this race though was a vote for helena moreno.  guess which two made it to the runoff.

it seems like dumb people from black and white constituencies decided to have a runoff with each other.  ultimately, this is a victory for stupid people.  congratulations yall.

bill jefferson of course will win.  it’s already in the bag.  only democrats and independents will be able to vote in this election.  a lot of moreno supporters don’t appear to know this very inconvenient fact and expect this to be a repeat of the city council at-large race between jackie clarkson and cynthia willard-lewis.  of course in that race clarkson was able to count on republican voters (who are mostly white) to come out for her.  that made the black-white number of voters close to 50-50, giving clarkson a good shot at victory.  this is not true for moreno vs. jefferson.  the black-white ratio for jefferson vs. moreno is 70-30.   this means that if moreno won 100% of the white vote (she’ll get better than 95%) she would still have to win a third of the black vote (she got 6% in the primary).  in other words, she’d have to do better than karen carter did with black voters 2 years ago in her runoff against jefferson in a presidential election year with barack obama at the top of the ticket.  yeah, good luck with that moreno and your moron supporters.

helena moreno, you just delivered the people of new orleans another 2 years of bill jefferson.  thanks a lot.

update:

greg rigamer says moreno will have to win better than 50% of the black vote to win the runoff.  great.  i wish ashley morris was still around to tell moreno to fyyff.

Ashley Morris, a champion of the local blogosphere, passed away yesterday. I’m pouring Jameson for you Ashley. Be well, wherever you are.

1. I am a very stupid man.
2. Clinton is one tough candidate who is underestimated at your own peril.
3. Like with Tom Bradley in the 1982 California Governor’s race and Harold Washington in the 1983 Chicago Mayor’s race, white people often tend to not tell the truth about whether or not they support black candidates in polls. To paraphrase Gloria Steinem, black people are never frontrunners either. Big leads in polls for blacks often do not actually hold up at the ballot box.

Democrats
41% – Obama
29% – Clinton
18% – Edwards

Republicans
26% – Romney
24% – McCain
14% – Huckabee
14% – Giulliani
12% – Paul
10% – Thompson

Update
WCBF chimes in. WCBF is predicting a McCain win, but I think he is going to be disapointed by the independent voter turnout which is mostly going to Obama instead of McCain this time around. I still think the Republican nomination race is between Romney and McCain though, with Giulliani in decent position and Huckabee still a one trick dark pony, though with increasing credibility.

Update2
YRHT weighs in as well, predicting an almost 20 point blowout for Obama. I think Oyster might actually be closer in prediction now than I am, considering these reports of overwhelming unprecedented Democratic primary turnout that has led to an unexpected ballot shortage.

But if that is the case, then that also makes my Romney upset of McCain prediction all the more likely with voters who would otherwise be McCain supporters forsaking him and jumping onto the Obama train.

The current thinking seems to be that Romney’s 2nd place finish opens the door wide open in New Hampshire for McCain. I don’t think that is the case, as McCain is still unpopular with the Republican base (even though of the big 4 – Romney, Huckabee, Giulliani, and McCain – he is the most right wing of them all) and he can no longer depend on the independent voters who delivered for him in 2000 against Bush.

Why?

Two reasons: the Iraq War and Obama.

Independents by a (small) majority oppose the war and McCain is the hawkiest most pro-war candidate in the field. And independent voters in New Hampshire may vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, but not both. They must choose. Obama the candidate and his big politics campaign message against partisanship resonates strongly with independents, along with his long opposition to the Iraq War.

Obama is Romney’s best buddy for New Hampshire to stop McCain from destroying Romney’s candidacy. If Romney loses New Hampshire, his campaign will be almost certainly over. For Republicans, it is a 3 man race in New Hampshire now between Giulliani, McCain, and Romney. Huckabee though may surprise now after his ass whooping in Iowa.

If Obama can finish first or a close second (3 or fewer points) to Hillary in New Hampshire, I think he wins the nomination, as it will lead to an exodus of black Hillary supporters for Obama in South Carolina who will realize this black man could actually win this thing. Obama could then be in position to lock up the black vote and split the white vote three ways fairly evenly. At the very least, it then becomes a two man race with Edwards.

My prediction:

Obama – 32%
Edwards – 25%
Clinton – 23%

Huckabee – 27%
Romney – 25%
McCain – 17%

Update:
OBAMA!

How did he win?
- RECORD TURNOUT – 236,000 vs. 124,000 for the Democratic caucus in 2004
- Independent Voters
- Voters under 45, especially those under 30
- Oprah?

The local blogosphere weighs in:

Library Chronicles
Adrastros
YRHT
WCBF

Kudos to Katie Moore at WWL-TV and Councilwoman Shelley Midura for having the guts to take on Criminal Sheriff Marlin Gusman. OPP has been a bastion of corruption, inhumanity, and dirty politics for the last 30 years, but no one has ever been willing to take that monster on. Until now.